Friday, April 17, 2009

Can you say ...Meltup?

This trading week will be over in less than 2 hours and if we end up on the day,the the score will be Bulls 4, Bears 1. Looking at my weekly chart, the score is 6-0. I wish my tennis game was that good.

This is a bit of irrational exuberance, but the reasons are clear and I have posted many times over the past few weeks what is driving this rally.

The earnings are coming in OK so far. Read that out of 40 companies that reported so far, 60% exceeded expectations. Does it mean much? Only as it relates to sentiment. The YoY comparisons are still ugly. The quality of earnings is clearly an issue, for every Financial company that has reported so far, but to be fair, the valuations are reflecting this to a certain extent. Think about it, if you can score a ticket to an NBA playoff game for $10, would you complain if you dont have the greatest view?

This rally has more legs than a centepede, fueled by what else fear and greed. But its the bulls now that are smelling blood and bears running scared. VIX has broken down, FAZ is a single digit midget.

Still waiting for a 3-5% decline, which I believe will be bought aggressively by underperforming money managers, that have not particiapted thus far. If we dont see a pullback soon, prepare yourself for a MELTUP - another leg up into 900-1000 territory on SPX.

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