Tuesday, April 28, 2009

TBT breaking out

A few days ago, I profiled TBT chart, pointing to a potential breakout scenario. Here is the original post:


http://themrktmaven.blogspot.com/2009/04/three-charts-i-am-watching-tbt-uup-and.html

Today, after a brief 'flight to safety' based on swine flu concerns and additional funds that C and BAC will likely need, the bond market reversed and is now trading down. Consumer confidence numbers came out above expectations,changing the negative market tone, and the long bond sold off. Additional $5b in 5 year notes auctioned today, did't go exceptionally strong, with supply continueing to come into the market.

Technically speaking, we are now seeing another test of the $48 resistance level. If we actually get a breakout from a cup and handle formation this time, (close above $48 and hold for a few days) I reiterate initial target of $50-$51, and potential run at the 50% fib retracement at $55.

TBT: Short Bet on Lehman 20-year Treasury Bond Index:

No comments:

Post a Comment