I have been watching TBT very carefully (this is one of my largest positions in my long term account, but I will be adding today to my trading account I maintain in MG). A few days ago, I posted on my blog, alerting readers to a potential brakout of cup and handle and trendline. Here is my post from yesterday which has the charts:
http://themrktmaven.blogspot.com/2009/04/tbt-breaking-out.html
And here a post from a week ago or so, when I first posted about it:
http://themrktmaven.blogspot.com/2009/04/three-charts-i-am-watching-tbt-uup-and.html
I was worried, that FED might do something crazy today, as they did back in March, and commit billions of $$$, but after the announcement a few minutes ago, they decided to take mno further action at the moment. Makes sense. They threw a lot of liquidity to support the mortgage market and to stop gap the housing crisis, but in a process, contributed together with US Treasury in creating one of the largest financial bubbles. It may take a year or two, but I have a lot of conviction in this trade. For now, I would invite traders who have no real conviction in this macro trade, to play the technical breakout. I think the next target is $51-52, with possibly 25% chance we may get to $55-$56
MiB: Joe McLean, MAI Capital
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