Wednesday, April 29, 2009

TBT - finally a breakout

I have been watching TBT very carefully (this is one of my largest positions in my long term account, but I will be adding today to my trading account I maintain in MG). A few days ago, I posted on my blog, alerting readers to a potential brakout of cup and handle and trendline. Here is my post from yesterday which has the charts:

http://themrkt​maven.blogspot.c​om/2009/04/tbt-b​reaking-out.html

And here a post from a week ago or so, when I first posted about it:

http://th​emrktmaven.​blogspot.c​om/2009/04/​three-char​ts-i-am-wat​ching-tbt-u​up-and.html

I was worried, that FED might do something crazy today, as they did back in March, and commit billions of $$$, but after the announcement a few minutes ago, they decided to take mno further action at the moment. Makes sense. They threw a lot of liquidity to support the mortgage market and to stop gap the housing crisis, but in a process, contributed together with US Treasury in creating one of the largest financial bubbles. It may take a year or two, but I have a lot of conviction in this trade. For now, I would invite traders who have no real conviction in this macro trade, to play the technical breakout. I think the next target is $51-52, with possibly 25% chance we may get to $55-$56

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